Russian original text could be found here: https://www.dimus.me/post/2020/02/10/mystery-of-flight-mh370
Nine years ago, at midnight on March 8, 2014, a Malaysia Airlines plane departed from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. After 40 minutes, the radio communication with the flight was lost, and several hours later, when it didn't arrive in Beijing, it was officially announced that MH370 had disappeared and possibly crashed. The aircraft had 227 passengers and 12 crew members on board. Search efforts for the crash site and the black boxes began almost immediately and continued with intermittent breaks for nearly 5 years, but they yielded no results.
However, in July of the following year, a large wing fragment (flaperon) was found on the shores of Reunion Island, brought there by the South Equatorial Current of the Indian Ocean. This fragment had factory numbers and markings that unequivocally identified it as part of the Boeing 777 that was operating flight MH370. Subsequently, dozens of debris pieces were discovered on the coasts of Africa and Madagascar, and computer simulations were able to determine the approximate crash location in the Indian Ocean, approximately 2,000 kilometers west of the Australian city of Perth, with a radius of approximately 200 kilometers.
An international commission was established shortly after (involving Malaysia, China, and Australia), but beyond confirming the fact of the aircraft accident and ruling out mere technical failure, the investigation made little progress. The cause of the crash, the organizers of the crime, and their motives remain unknown. Every year on March 8th, the relatives of the victims organize a Memorial Day in Kuala Lumpur under the slogan "Where? Who? Why? When? How?" The questions are primarily addressed to the Malaysian authorities, who made significant efforts to make the investigation impossible or ineffective and to keep the discovered evidence as secret as possible. Many pieces of information became known to the public only through leaks, such as the positive identification of debris or the analysis of the flight simulator of the first pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah.
A significant amount has been written about the disappearance of MH370, and those interested in obtaining more detailed information can start with the Wikipedia article, which includes over 300 bibliographic references to various publications on the internet, reports, document photocopies, transcripts of conversations, and more. The purpose of this note is to draw the reader's attention to some facts that were reported in the early days after the crash but somehow vanished in later overviews – as if they didn't exist. It is worth noting that the "evaporation" of information from the internet after important events is a relatively common occurrence: in the first days and hours, information or facts that can provide a key to solving the incident "slips through" the media, so it is essential to immediately save or copy it. After a short time, interested parties will try to cover their tracks, removing from the web everything they can, and sometimes even everyone they can. For example, immediately after another Malaysian plane, MH17 was shot down over Ukraine, everyone could get access to a transcript of conversations among rebels, which clearly indicated that they were responsible for downing the plane, likely by mistake. Try to find that recording now.
The disappearance of the flight immediately caught my interest, and on March 26 (2014), I decided to compile the available information, try to make sense of it, and develop a plausible theory about what happened. This is what people call a conspiracy theory! Sorry, but what to do if the whole story of missing MH370 looks like a conspiracy, smells like a conspiracy, and could be nothing else than a conspiracy? After some editing and additions, I even sent my thoughts to CNN through their specially created web portal and separately to the well-known Fox News anchor Bill O'Reilly, but I received no response. My theory has some weak points that need verification, but overall, it seems to be the best among the existing ones, and the new facts that emerged later do not contradict it. I named this assay the "Cargo theory" and it suggests that the key to solving the mystery should be sought in what MH370 was carrying in its belly.
Let's start with the route. The plane's flight from takeoff until it disappeared has been reconstructed quite well by investigators and various committees, and a schematic map is available in almost every article on this topic. The flight consisted of four segments:
1. Departure at 00:41 from Kuala Lumpur Airport to the northeast in the direction of Beijing and flying under the control of Malaysian air traffic control for 45 minutes. Once the plane was supposed to enter the Vietnamese control zone, radio communication and the plane's transponder, which transmits its coordinates and flight information, were turned off. The aircraft turned around and descended several thousand feet to avoid radar tracking. After 20 minutes, the Vietnamese controllers informed their Malaysian counterparts that they had not established contact and did not know the whereabouts of the plane. 2. It took approximately the same amount of time for MH370 to cross the Malay Peninsula in almost the opposite direction. It flew along the Malaysian-Thailand border, and during this time, it was detected by Thai military radars. However, they only reported this to the Malaysians a week later. - Why? - Well, because no one asked us, and the plane did not pose a threat. - Upon reaching Penang Island, the plane made a new turn to the right by 90 degrees. 3. The third segment is the most interesting: the plane now flies northwest along the Malacca Strait between the Malay Peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra. It was detected by military radars of Thailand and Indonesia. At some point, it unexpectedly turned on the transponder, descended from 35,000 to 3,000 feet (according to other data, down to 12,000), and then rapidly climbed to 45,000 feet, which is the maximum altitude for this type of aircraft. At this moment, it made a final, relatively smooth left turn and turned off the transponder once again, without establishing contact with anyone. 4. The plane was flying on autopilot at the maximum allowable altitude, heading directly south. All communication systems were disabled, but the plane engines of the Rolls-Royce system had built-in transmitters (which could not be turned off), which transmitted a signal to a geostationary satellite every hour about the engine operation and fuel quantity. The last, seventh signal was received at 8:19 AM, and apparently, shortly after that, as the Russian poet Vladimir Vysotsky sings: "Gone, having exhausted the fuel, completely fell apart into pieces...". In other words, the total flight time exceeded eight hours.
Any theory should somehow explain this highly unusual route. It is apparent that it was not an explosion or a fire: firstly, planes do not burn for such a long time, and secondly, in the case of a fire, there would have been enough time to send a distress signal instead of disabling communication. No traces of explosion or fire were found on the recovered debris. A slightly more tenable hypothesis is that the pilot was insane, locked himself in the cockpit, manipulated the controls erratically, and then activated the autopilot, shot himself, and that's it. A humane version would be that he depressurized the cabin beforehand, and all passengers died quickly and without much suffering. Let's hope that was the case...
Unfortunately, the pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah was not insane: a very powerful computer with a flight simulator program was found in his home, and as he wrote on social media, he loved to practice various flights on it. The computer was confiscated, and among other records of virtual flights, one much like the March 8th route was discovered: the same four segments, three turns, and a long flight south into the Indian Ocean until the fuel was completely depleted. Shah "flew" on the same Boeing 777-200, and the simulation had happened on February 2nd – one month before the tragic events. No doubt such similarity in modeling and implementation cannot be coincidental, and the first pilot is 100 percent mixed up in. He can only be a perpetrator, and someone forced him to do it. It is worth noting that information about the discovery on the simulator was concealed by the Malaysian side for almost two years and became known only through an internal leak of information, the details of which I am not aware.
Without much discussion, we can discard options involving aliens, black holes, rocket attacks, and terrorist acts: no demands were made, and no one took responsibility, although it happens, as in the case of the Twin Towers attack in New York, that's a separate story. - What remains? - Well, what if the plane was carrying some special cargo, so valuable that it was worth sacrificing over two hundred people just to deliver or, on the contrary, prevent it from reaching its destination or intercept it? So, the "Cargo theory"! It seems to me the most likely and deserving of the most thorough investigation.
As an option, we can assume that this cargo might be a specific person or a group, but the passenger list is known, and there were no noticeable figures like politicians, businessmen, actors, or athletes. It is worth noting that there was an interesting group of passengers on MH370: twenty employees of the company Freescale Semiconductor, based in Texas, were on board. Freescale is engaged in the development of ultra-miniature processors that can be used in military intelligence and could be of interest to many countries. In the early days after the disappearance of MH370, a theory emerged on the internet about the hijacking of the plane by Israeli electronic intelligence with subsequent landing at an American base on Diego Garcia Island. The goal of such an operation would be to obtain secret developments and force Chinese and Malaysian scientists to work for the Zionists. There isn't much sense in such a hypothesis, as Freescale Semiconductor has its research divisions in Israel (the city of Herzliya Pituah), and Israelis can "steal secrets" in a less sophisticated manner. Moreover, Diego Garcia Island does not match the flight path determined by the hourly engine signals received by the satellite. Thus, American-Israeli interception does not fly, although it does not exclude Israel's involvement.
So, what was MH370 carrying in its cargo hold, that is, the cargo compartment located beneath the passenger cabin, on that fateful day? Strangely enough, the Malaysian authorities refused to release the cargo manifest for two months, except for the message (aka threw the bone) about 200 kilograms of lithium batteries, which are actually hazardous cargo that can self-ignite if improperly packed. This news reignited stupid mumblings about a possible fire.
However, there was much more cargo, and it was not small. This could be inferred from the reports that emerged in the early days after the accident, stating that there were many vacant seats on the plane (21 in business class and 40 in economy class), but at the same time, there was a waiting list for this flight, indeed! Above all, approximately an hour before departure it was announced that 5 registered passengers refused to fly, and their seats were quickly resold to "lucky" individuals issuing new tickets. One might wonder, if there are vacant seats, why do not sell tickets for them? Probably because the plane took on additional cargo equivalent to the weight of 60 passengers with baggage, which can be estimated at 4-6 tons.
In the end, Malaysia Airlines (MAS) presented the cargo manifest (available online), which states that, in addition to the batteries, the plane was loaded with 4.5 tons of fresh mangosteen fruit. This is a quite expensive exotic fruit, which costs around $2-3 per kilogram in China and ten times more in Western countries. If the ticket price for the Kuala Lumpur to Beijing flight is around $300, and according to the manifest, the airline charged the client approximately $12,000 for transporting the mangosteen, the transaction doesn't make much sense. In any case, the fruits could not be the reason for the hijacking of the plane. However, for future researchers, let's add another interesting fact. As indicated in Appendix 1.18J of the cargo manifest (AIRWAY BILL from Jan to May 2014), both before and after the accident, passenger planes from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing daily (!) transported cargoes of both mangosteen and lithium batteries, and often both together. In this regard, it would be interesting to check the number of passengers carried by MH370 on other days and whether there was always a waiting list. The manifest for March 8th also includes 2.5 tons of unspecified cargo listed as "consolidated." After numerous requests from the passengers' relatives, MAS stated in 2018 that these were radio parts, without providing further details.
In this small screenshot from the 18-page Cargo Manifest, one can see that the actual cargo weight was 10,800 kilograms while passengers with baggage made 20,300 kg. If the regular cargo doesn't raise suspicions, then there must be something else. Two quite interesting versions could have been found on the internet (9 years ago). One of them described the capture by Afghan Mujahideen of a highly secretive American reconnaissance station, which they offered for sale to interested countries, and allegedly, the Chinese comrades expressed interest. The station (installation) was delivered to Malaysia and then quietly started being transported to China, possibly in small batches of several tons per flight. In such a case, the perpetrators attempted to intercept this cargo and sought the assistance of Zaharie Ahmad Shah.
Another hypothesis is related to the events in Iran at that time when the regime was preparing to sign the “Nuclear Deal” with the United States and the European Union. Iran's nuclear program was ongoing at that time, and it is possible that some important components got "stuck" in Malaysia, where they could be earlier delivered from North Korea, for example. If these components were crucial for the Iranians, they might have resorted to a desperate plan to transport such cargo, disregarding the presence of passengers but making every effort to conceal the traces. The presence of two Iranian citizens with fake (stolen) passports on board the plane supports the second scenario. The Iranians’ true role is unclear, but the bogus story that they were refugees fleeing the Iranian regime and heading to their mother in Frankfurt does not withstand even mild criticism. At first they left Iran for Dubai (how?) and then legally traveled to Malaysia. One wonders who on earth could prevent them from flying directly from Dubai to Germany, where they would be welcomed with open arms, granted refugee status, provided with an apartment, and benefits, and enrolled in a university, gratis. Instead, they purchased stolen passports in Malaysia (paying a significant amount of money), thus, committing a crime that would lead to deportation from any lawful country, and headed for Beijing, even further away from Europe. Those interested can find on the web an exciting testimony from a certain friend of Iranians, resident in Kuala Lumpur, where he tells how he helped his friends to purchase airline tickets using fake passports.
Needless to say, if Iranians with fake passports were quickly cleared by MAS authorities from any potential involvement, two Ukrainians (both age 45) and a Russian (43) passengers are not worth investigating.
So, let's try to imagine how events could have unfolded. Sometime in late January 2014, Ahmed Shah was approached with an offer he couldn't refuse: he was politely asked to deliver several tons of highly important cargo to the designated location and secure himself for the rest of his life, which in reality might not be that long. Initially, the plan probably suggested simply hijacking the plane and landing it at one of the airports suitable in terms of the political climate of the countries. That's why on Shah's simulator were found records of model flights to Mumbai, Jeddah, Bali Island, and some points on the Australian coast. In this benign(!) scenario, which included landing the plane, the passengers would have been saved, but apparently, the risk of discovery was too high for the organizers. Therefore, the plans changed, and it was decided to drop the cargo from the plane with a parachute somewhere over the Malacca Strait, where it would be picked up by the client's vessel without requiring a significant deviation from the regular route. This strait is the shortest shipping route from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, through which up to 500 vessels pass daily. It is almost inconceivable that a large passenger plane, descending to 3,000 feet during daylight hours, would not be noticed from any ship. That's why a nighttime flight was chosen for the operation, and naturally, all the aircraft lights were turned off.
The hypothesis of cargo parachuting explains the fact of the plane descending over the Malacca Strait, which was instrumental to locate the receiving vessel and achieve the necessary accuracy of the drop shot. There was little time for the search for a buoyant container, and it had to fall close enough. The descent from 35,000 to 3,000 feet was also desirable if any people were supposed to jump from the plane without having special oxygen equipment for jumps in a rarefied atmosphere.
Ahmed Shah worked out a new variant on the simulator, and most likely he concluded that the plan was feasible. It was almost certainly agreed that he would put the plane on autopilot, directing it towards the South Pole, jump with a parachute along with the cargo, and start a new secure life somewhere very, very far away from his native Penang Island. Perhaps that's what happened, as no one is looking for Zaharia Shah and he is considered dead.
This audacious plan required the coolness and ruthlessness of a contract killer and meticulous planning. Obviously, the pilot had accomplices, most of whom had no idea what was being plotted. As noted earlier, about an hour before the flight, five registered passengers declined to board. It would be very exciting to know who those people were, the transcripts of their interrogations, and how their financial affairs unfolded after the disappearance of MH370, but I have not come across such information – the police records are still classified. Their luggage had already been loaded onto the plane, so two-three "randomly selected" airport employees drove to the plane by truck to retrieve the suitcases from the cargo hold and also upload everything listed in the conspiracy: the cargo itself, parachutes, etc. It was a dark night, with maximum security at Kuala Lumpur airport (LOL!). If the container with the special cargo was already on board disguised as fruits or radio parts, it could be moved closer to the cargo door and floaties attached. Moreover, a couple of people could be left in the cargo compartment during the flight so that the pilot would not have to make his way from the cabin to the cargo hold, and he could jump out of the passenger door.
Apparently, the preparative phase of the plan went successfully. The plane took off, and after 40 minutes, the first pilot grimly told to the dispatcher: “Good night, Malaysian 370” and eliminated the second pilot, disabled all communication systems, released sleeping gas into the plane's cabin through the ventilation system, and headed towards the meeting point in Malacca strait. We can assume that the pilot may have needed some assistance, and it was quite convenient having on board two young Iranians traveling on fake passports that was necessary if Malaysian security had already been tipped to watch for Iranian passengers. Again, they are not terrorists, and they have no previous involvement in any criminal cases; they are refugees from the Ayatollah regime, or perhaps employees of Iranian intelligence agencies. Perhaps, according to Ahmed Shah's plan, he let them into the cockpit before the first turn.
Prior to approaching the meeting point, the first pilot briefly turned on the transponder, presumably to get a more accurate fix, or perhaps to allow himself to be detected by a ship and establish contact. Then he descended and reduced speed, and when the cargo was dropped and the signal "OK" came from the cargo hold, he activated the autopilot in a pre-programmed mode and prepared to jump. It is highly likely that at this moment, the Iranian comrades sent the first pilot to the afterlife – who knows, maybe someday they will decide to write memoirs like O.J. Simpson. But most probably the fate of the Iranians themselves was the same as that of the other passengers; they likely acted on ideological considerations for the benefit of the Islamic Republic, and their rescue was not even theoretically planned.
Under the control of the autopilot, the plane turned south and reached the recommended altitude of 45,000 feet to minimize fuel consumption and fly as far as possible. After about 6 hours of such flight, the fuel ran out, and the plane nosedived into the ocean. The impact was very strong, and according to the published opinion of an expert, the plane should have "turned into confetti." However, if the fuselage remained intact, it could have sunk immediately with its entire contents. The fact that all the debris found consisted of parts of the wings and jet engines, which are attached to these wings, supports this version.
Thus, the "Cargo Theory" explains the strange route of the plane, changes in altitude, as well as the possible motive and perpetrators. Supporting this theory are the reluctance of the Malaysian side to publish the cargo manifest, the lack of information about the five "decliners", the very fast exclusion of the two Iranians from the list of suspects, and all attempts to absolve the first pilot of any responsibility – who knows what he simulated there! It is possible that the investigation in the direction proposed here may still yield results and lead to a mystery resolution. For example, it may be possible to find out which airport employees went to the plane to retrieve the luggage of these five decliners. Or one could search for ship records of any vessels passing through the Strait of Malacca on the night of March 8, 2014.
The theory could suffer greatly if it turns out that it is impossible to open any door and drop cargo from a Boeing 777-200ER in flight. I couldn't find an expert on such planes, but perhaps someone among the interested readers will succeed. If the answer is negative, one could try to find out if the plane was ever modified to make such a thing possible.
Interestingly, around September 2019, I came across an internet note suggesting that Ahmed Shah parachuted from the passenger cabin to escape from his wife and reunite with his mistress named Rina, who was waiting for him on a boat. There was no mention of cargo. It is obvious that the motivation for such a heinous crime is weak, albeit it is possible to check if Rina disappeared, but as we can see, the idea of using a parachute did not occur to me alone.
(c) Dimus, March 26, 2014 Supplemented version - February 2020 ChatGPT English translation and update – June 2023
🤓Very interesting theory!